How much will solar power cost in 2030?

In 2016, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office set a goal to reduce the unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) to 3 cents/kWh by 2030. Utility PV systems were benchmarked to have an LCOE of approximately 5 cents/kWh in 2020 (Feldman, Ramasamy et al. 2021).

How has solar power changed over time?

Both are measured on logarithmic scales, and the trend follows a straight line. That means the fall in cost has been exponential. Costs have fallen by around 20% every time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over four decades, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to the cheapest in many countries.

Are solar PV prices going down?

Nonetheless, rapid price declines in solar PV have not been without controversy. China, for example, has played an outsized role in scaling up the mass production of solar PV cells and modules, comprising 78% of global production in 2021 9, 10 (Fig. 1).

How much does a solar PV system cost?

“A significant portion of the cost declines over the past decade can be attributed to an 85% cost decline in module price. A decade ago, the module alone cost around $2.50 per watt, and now an entire utility-scale PV system costs around $1 per watt,” said NREL Senior Financial Analyst David Feldman.

How does technology affect the cost of solar power?

This states that the cost of technology falls consistently as the cumulative production of that technology increases. The chart shows the perfect example of this for solar power. This data comes from the International Renewable Agency, Greg Nemet, and Doyne Farmer & François Lafond.

Will solar power increase in 2020?

This reduction in cost in combination with solar policy incentives has led to rapid growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity, from providing less than 0.1% of the U.S. electricity supply in 2011 to over 3% in 2020. This upward trajectory is expected to continue.