Can wind power generation forecasts be forecasted at seasonal timescales?

While forecasts of wind power generation at lead times from minutes and hours to a few days ahead have been produced with very advanced methodologies (e.g. dynamical downscaling, machine learning or statistical downscaling [ 17 ]), a number of difficulties make the provision of generation forecasts at seasonal timescales challenging.

How fast can wind power be forecasted?

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 min up to 4 h ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms’ intermittent production on energy systems and markets.

Should wind power be forecasted first?

This is advantageous since a model trained to predict wind speed first will be very eager to forecast well high values (failing to do so would incur a high error term). However to predict wind power, producing accurate forecasts for higher wind speeds is less critical.

What is wind power prediction?

Wind power prediction involves applying state-of-the-art algorithms to the field of wind power generation so that wind power generation can be better connected to the electricity grid, and key technologies have developed rapidly.

How to predict the future output power of a wind farm?

According to this model, NWP and other information are used as inputs to predict the future output power of the wind farm. The advantage of statistical prediction is that it can minimize the prediction error of the output probability when there is sufficient historical data.

What is the forecast wind generation share in 2023?

The forecast wind generation share in 2023 remains relatively similar to last year, averaging 11%, and then increases to 12% in 2024. Much of the growth in solar capacity is in Texas and California, where natural gas has been the primary source of electricity.